Storm Prediction Models

8/18/2020 (Permalink)

When it comes to predicting storms during Hurricane Season, technology has definitely come a long way in giving us advance notice to prepare.  In years past, those in areas that could be affected would patiently wait for the news to release the latest updates and carefully plot the course on paper “hurricane tracking maps”.  Thanks to modern technology, we can now get updates every few hours and simply look at the maps and projected path on our smartphones.  We now have much more advanced notice of when and where a storm may strike, although nature is never 100% predictable.  There are several models when it comes to predicting the projected path of a storm.  Have you ever wondered which model is the most reliable or exactly what factors affect their predictions?  The truth is the accuracy of one specific model has not been proven and typically a number of models are used to outline the projected path.  This is where the term “cone of uncertainty” has come into play.  Using several model forecasts, those most closely aligned are used to outline a “cone” or path that is most likely.  Despite all the advances in hurricane and storm prediction, Mother Nature can still be unpredictable.  Your best bet is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  Having an emergency plan in place is the best defense against the unexpected.  At SERVPRO of Mobile County, we have years of experience in handling the aftermath of all types of storm situations.  We are always Here to Help^® should you need us!  For more information on storm prediction models CLICK HERE to be taken to the NOAA Hurricane Center.